The Less Obvious Benefits of Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous cars (or self-driving cars) are an exciting technology domain that has emerged over the past couple of years. While industry and academia have technically been working on it for over a decade, it hasn’t been until recently that reality has caught up to the promises being made. Consumer access to the technology is being accelerated forward primarily thanks to Tesla and their auto-pilot capabilities. They were first to introduce lane keeping, combined with other existing capabilities like adaptive cruise control, that allowed their cars to “drive” without constant human input. Then we also have Uber and the ride-sharing economy pushing for a future where most people won’t need to own a car, you simply hail one, just as easily as you do today for a taxi or Uber. We are still years away from fully autonomous cars that can bring passengers from any arbitrary point to another arbitrary point with little to no human input. There are obvious benefits to this technology that have been presented and discussed, but I wanted to write a bit about the less obvious benefits that we will see in the coming future.

Emergency vehicles

Emergency vehicles and emergency responders will benefit from autonomous cars thanks to improved routing and navigation. In addition to those aspects, emergency vehicles may be able to reach their destinations faster than traditional ones, due to vehicle-2-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-2-infrastructure (V2I) capabilities that could allow other cars to automatically pull over, giving the emergency vehicles a clear and expected path. Today, emergency vehicles must travel slowly through congested roads, waiting for regular vehicles to pull over or otherwise get out of the way. If most, or all, of the cars on the road are autonomous, this could be done in an optimal way, allowing the emergency vehicle to pass at faster speeds and greater efficiency. At the end of the day, this could mean the extra few minutes required to save more lives.

Greater independence

Autonomous cars will provide a great deal of independence for those who are unable to transport themselves. This of course includes the elderly and disabled, but also includes other people, like women who may be pregnant with a somewhat unpredictable need to head to a hospital. It can also include younger individuals who are not yet-of-age to drive. And what about individuals who have temporary impairments, such as anyone who has ever gone to have surgery using general anesthesia? (You are not permitted to drive yourself home after such a surgery.) Autonomous cars will fill a need in all of these situations, and will do so with vast improvements over today’s existing options.

Fewer dangerous drivers on the road

With an autonomous car, there is no opportunity for a driver to be driving while under the influence (DUI). There is no opportunity for a sleep-deprived person falling asleep behind the wheel. Texting while driving? No longer an issue. And if we go as far as mandating the use of autonomous cars, then there won’t be unlicensed or otherwise irresponsible drivers, ever.

People can go out and drink freely with autonomous cars on the road, not having to worry about driving drunk. Society can rest easier knowing that fewer drunk drivers will be on the road. And generally speaking, autonomous cars are just plain safer than human drivers.[1] They employ dozens of sensors, and different types of sensors, that are always on, always watching, never fatigued or tired, and can react to dangerous situations in milliseconds. Sensors and computers don’t get distracted, you won’t have to worry about a driver texting and driving, ever again.

Could increase the recreational car business

Many people whom I’ve talked with about autonomous cars react with a sense of indignation that they would have their car taken away from them. They love to drive! I can usually present a thousand situations that challenge that notion (sitting in traffic, getting into accidents, etc.) but ultimately, if there is still a large passion for driving, we could see this as a business opportunity. We already have public race tracks[1], but they are few and far between. This is because most people are content owning their own car, even if it’s not a Formula 1 car. But, if we migrate to a future were most people don’t own their own cars, there could be an opportunity here to open up recreational car driving as a sort of sport open to the public. Think about how we have Go-Carts and those handful of public race tracks… now expand them to include large courses that people can drive, all sorts of different cars (not everyone wants to drive a race car), and so on.

Public transit revolution

Today, many cities and metropolitan areas rely on intensive networks of subways, light-rail, buses and other mass transit systems in order to satisfy the need for public transit. But these solutions are dated, and as cities grow, they become stressed by growing populations that they weren’t initially designed to handle. They are costly to repair, costly to replace, and even more costly to upgrade. Autonomous cars offer a new take on public transit. Instead of individuals owning cars, why not have the public transit authority own autonomous cars that people simply “rent” or “hire” for the time they need them? Instead of having a couple dozen trains running on fixed tracks, imagine having something like Uber backed by tens of thousands of autonomous cars in every city. Public transit would become more flexible, limited only by the roads. It would also become more convenient, responding to passenger requests, instead of running at fixed intervals.

Several cities around the world are experimenting with this idea already.[1][2][3] Particularly places that are growing, but don’t already have established public transit infrastructure. Why build that, when we can look to the future?

Getting your time back

I don’t know about you, but I for one don’t particularly like driving, especially monotonous routes like a commute to work every day. Autonomous cars offer us the ability to regain some of our time that is being lost to the act of driving. When you consider that a “perfect” autonomous car (i.e. fully autonomous, safer than a human driver, reliable, etc.) changes the requirements for what a car looks like, it becomes really exciting what can happen.

Take the NIO EVE concept autonomous car:

This is just one idea for completely changing how people interact with their cars and what they can do when riding inside of them. Beyond the futuristic style is a functional change to the cabin that provides a living space for passengers to rest, relax, get work done, etc.

If this becomes a reality, maybe I won’t dread the 6+ hour drive to go see my mother so much, and maybe, just maybe, I’ll go see her more often!

Increased population density

It’s probably not a top priority for most urban planners or ecologically-minded people to increase the population, but let’s face it… it’s going to happen. Big cities everywhere suffer from the same ailments, one of the big ones being traffic. By replacing the way people move about, along with increasing the efficiency and speed by which they can do so, more people can end up living comfortably in cities. This is the exact same benefit that public transit and mass transit brought to cities of the late 20th century, but is the next step beyond.

Cheaper and faster long distance travel

Right now, most long distance travel is accomplished by planes or trains. Traveling by air is typically not a cheap thing to do, and certainly has become less comfortable as time goes on.[1] When compared with large trains, planes, and boats, a car-sized vehicle is a very cheap and cost-efficient vehicle. Especially if we enact a future where everyone relies on them, that brings the economy-of-scale to fruition, lowering the price for everyone. And because autonomous vehicles can function at higher speeds than manually controlled ones, while still providing just as much (if not better) safety, these vehicles can decrease the time required to get from two points, while increasing the practical distance for most people.

 

Imagine being in a small van sized autonomous vehicle, that is traveling along something similar to today’s interstate roadway, but only filled with other autonomous vehicles. Your vehicle, along with others, can travel at speeds in excess of 120 mph. They could probably go faster even, it all really depends on how passengers feel given the various physical forces they will experience as they move faster and faster. But even at a conservatively low 120 mph, that essentially cuts every road trip you’ve done to half the time. Or, it could mean that you now have the patients to tolerate road trips that are twice as long! But you know what? If I didn’t have to drive (and thus lock my attention on a very monotonous task) because the car could do it autonomously, I’d be willing to go just about anywhere. The time it takes to get there is much less of a factor in general thanks to autonomous vehicles!

Conclusion

Our future includes autonomous cars, this is no doubt. It’s not a matter of if, but when. I’m excited for all the ways life will change once autonomous cars reach maturity and become wide spread. From the obvious benefits of general safety improvement and increased mobility, to the less obvious benefits, this will usher in a revolution for transportation.

About Me & This Topic

Alex has worked on human-machine interface and data management components related to autonomous cars, and has had a long interest in autonomy and vehicle/robot intelligence.

Bitcoin breaks the limits of natural division; being deflationary isn’t a bad thing

Naysayers have remarked that Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. And that it will ultimately fail for various reasons.[1] Of course, take what I’m about to say with a grain of salt, as I have most definitely drank the crypto Kool-aid. (And it tastes really, really good!) If Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme, then so is every stock market exchange on the planet. In some, limited ways, I suppose I do agree. These exchanges, especially the more unregulated they are, can be environments where the strong pray on the weak. Value is not created out of thin air in these markets. When someone profits off their market positions, it’s directly due to the loss of someone else’s position. It’s not entirely bad, but you can see how this environment can represent a sort of “Ponzi scheme” where wealth transfer goes from one group of people to another. It becomes a full-fledged “scheme” when those big players attempt to manipulate the market and influence price swings in their favor.


The Slate article I linked above is rather old, but I wanted to address specifically one point the article makes: that Bitcoin’s inherently fixed supply is a bad thing. Bitcoin has a maximum supply of about 21 million units, all of which won’t be released until  around the year 2140. I disagree with the Slate article because I feel the author fails to understand the beauty of Bitcoin as a completely digital currency. Because it is digital, it is represented using mathematics. It is not tied to physical limitations, like how many times you can split a gold nugget until it cannot be perceived as valuable by the human eye. Today, a Bitcoin can be split to fractions of 10^8. Most people who transact in Bitcoin today (at the end of 2017) don’t deal in whole Bitcoins. Today, a single Bitcoin would run you about $8,200.00 USD. This means that if we used Bitcoin for day-to-day transactions, like buying a coffee at Starbucks, it would cost you about 0.00061 BTC (~$5 USD). That might seem like a silly fraction, and it might be difficult for people to work with numbers represented that way. That’s why the classical metric prefix system exists! You can express this same quantity as 0.61 milli-BTC. Or maybe even 610 micro-BTC. Because Bitcoin is currently split with up to 8 digits of precision, this allows it to gain in value without reducing it’s ability to be used for smaller value transactions.

It is certainly possible that a single whole BTC will reach astronomical values. If this happens, it may be necessary to change the software algorithm to allow for more significant figures. While not trivial, it is definitely something that is possible to do. Bitcoin is not a static technology, it is constantly being worked on and improved. If the time comes that more significant figures are needed, they will most certainly be added. In this hypothetical future, we could be transacting in amounts of 0.000000001 BTC (or 1 nano-BTC). Let’s run with this for a moment: what if a $5 USD coffee costed 1 nano-BTC? That would place the value of a single whole Bitcoin at $5 billion dollars. Okay okay! Before anyone bites my head off, I’m not suggesting this will be the valuation of Bitcoin any time soon. I’m just providing a hypothetical scenario which is easily decades away, if it ever came to be.

But what about hoarding? The theory goes that in a deflationary currency, it is a problem because the value of the currency increases, while the cost of goods and services decreases. This could cause individuals to hoard the currency, because it will be worth more tomorrow than it is today.[2] Sure, there is definitely some truth to this, but I believe the one difference here is exactly what I explained above. We have never had a system that can so naturally adjust to using a smaller and smaller precision of numbers until now. Even when the House of Medici, the historic Italian family which created one of the most prosperous banks in the world which made use of novel book keeping and accounting methods, there was still a natural limit to what they would record. At the end of the day, they were recording physical things: 1 gold, 5 silver, 10 copper. 4 eggs, 1 cow, 20 loaves of bread. Each of these has a slightly different limit of “natural division” that can be applied to it. In terms of precious metals, you could divide them up quite a bit, but you’d eventually want to stop at a size that you were able to hold comfortably. Any smaller than that and it could be lost too easily. All of these concerns are now gone with a system of accounting like Bitcoin.