tech

The Less Obvious Benefits of Autonomous Vehicles

Autonomous cars (or self-driving cars) are an exciting technology domain that has emerged over the past couple of years. While industry and academia have technically been working on it for over a decade, it hasn’t been until recently that reality has caught up to the promises being made. Consumer access to the technology is being accelerated forward primarily thanks to Tesla and their auto-pilot capabilities. They were first to introduce lane keeping, combined with other existing capabilities like adaptive cruise control, that allowed their cars to “drive” without constant human input. Then we also have Uber and the ride-sharing economy pushing for a future where most people won’t need to own a car, you simply hail one, just as easily as you do today for a taxi or Uber. We are still years away from fully autonomous cars that can bring passengers from any arbitrary point to another arbitrary point with little to no human input. There are obvious benefits to this technology that have been presented and discussed, but I wanted to write a bit about the less obvious benefits that we will see in the coming future.

Emergency vehicles

Emergency vehicles and emergency responders will benefit from autonomous cars thanks to improved routing and navigation. In addition to those aspects, emergency vehicles may be able to reach their destinations faster than traditional ones, due to vehicle-2-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-2-infrastructure (V2I) capabilities that could allow other cars to automatically pull over, giving the emergency vehicles a clear and expected path. Today, emergency vehicles must travel slowly through congested roads, waiting for regular vehicles to pull over or otherwise get out of the way. If most, or all, of the cars on the road are autonomous, this could be done in an optimal way, allowing the emergency vehicle to pass at faster speeds and greater efficiency. At the end of the day, this could mean the extra few minutes required to save more lives.

Greater independence

Autonomous cars will provide a great deal of independence for those who are unable to transport themselves. This of course includes the elderly and disabled, but also includes other people, like women who may be pregnant with a somewhat unpredictable need to head to a hospital. It can also include younger individuals who are not yet-of-age to drive. And what about individuals who have temporary impairments, such as anyone who has ever gone to have surgery using general anesthesia? (You are not permitted to drive yourself home after such a surgery.) Autonomous cars will fill a need in all of these situations, and will do so with vast improvements over today’s existing options.

Fewer dangerous drivers on the road

With an autonomous car, there is no opportunity for a driver to be driving while under the influence (DUI). There is no opportunity for a sleep-deprived person falling asleep behind the wheel. Texting while driving? No longer an issue. And if we go as far as mandating the use of autonomous cars, then there won’t be unlicensed or otherwise irresponsible drivers, ever.

People can go out and drink freely with autonomous cars on the road, not having to worry about driving drunk. Society can rest easier knowing that fewer drunk drivers will be on the road. And generally speaking, autonomous cars are just plain safer than human drivers.[1] They employ dozens of sensors, and different types of sensors, that are always on, always watching, never fatigued or tired, and can react to dangerous situations in milliseconds. Sensors and computers don’t get distracted, you won’t have to worry about a driver texting and driving, ever again.

Could increase the recreational car business

Many people whom I’ve talked with about autonomous cars react with a sense of indignation that they would have their car taken away from them. They love to drive! I can usually present a thousand situations that challenge that notion (sitting in traffic, getting into accidents, etc.) but ultimately, if there is still a large passion for driving, we could see this as a business opportunity. We already have public race tracks[1], but they are few and far between. This is because most people are content owning their own car, even if it’s not a Formula 1 car. But, if we migrate to a future were most people don’t own their own cars, there could be an opportunity here to open up recreational car driving as a sort of sport open to the public. Think about how we have Go-Carts and those handful of public race tracks… now expand them to include large courses that people can drive, all sorts of different cars (not everyone wants to drive a race car), and so on.

Public transit revolution

Today, many cities and metropolitan areas rely on intensive networks of subways, light-rail, buses and other mass transit systems in order to satisfy the need for public transit. But these solutions are dated, and as cities grow, they become stressed by growing populations that they weren’t initially designed to handle. They are costly to repair, costly to replace, and even more costly to upgrade. Autonomous cars offer a new take on public transit. Instead of individuals owning cars, why not have the public transit authority own autonomous cars that people simply “rent” or “hire” for the time they need them? Instead of having a couple dozen trains running on fixed tracks, imagine having something like Uber backed by tens of thousands of autonomous cars in every city. Public transit would become more flexible, limited only by the roads. It would also become more convenient, responding to passenger requests, instead of running at fixed intervals.

Several cities around the world are experimenting with this idea already.[1][2][3] Particularly places that are growing, but don’t already have established public transit infrastructure. Why build that, when we can look to the future?

Getting your time back

I don’t know about you, but I for one don’t particularly like driving, especially monotonous routes like a commute to work every day. Autonomous cars offer us the ability to regain some of our time that is being lost to the act of driving. When you consider that a “perfect” autonomous car (i.e. fully autonomous, safer than a human driver, reliable, etc.) changes the requirements for what a car looks like, it becomes really exciting what can happen.

Take the NIO EVE concept autonomous car:

This is just one idea for completely changing how people interact with their cars and what they can do when riding inside of them. Beyond the futuristic style is a functional change to the cabin that provides a living space for passengers to rest, relax, get work done, etc.

If this becomes a reality, maybe I won’t dread the 6+ hour drive to go see my mother so much, and maybe, just maybe, I’ll go see her more often!

Increased population density

It’s probably not a top priority for most urban planners or ecologically-minded people to increase the population, but let’s face it… it’s going to happen. Big cities everywhere suffer from the same ailments, one of the big ones being traffic. By replacing the way people move about, along with increasing the efficiency and speed by which they can do so, more people can end up living comfortably in cities. This is the exact same benefit that public transit and mass transit brought to cities of the late 20th century, but is the next step beyond.

Cheaper and faster long distance travel

Right now, most long distance travel is accomplished by planes or trains. Traveling by air is typically not a cheap thing to do, and certainly has become less comfortable as time goes on.[1] When compared with large trains, planes, and boats, a car-sized vehicle is a very cheap and cost-efficient vehicle. Especially if we enact a future where everyone relies on them, that brings the economy-of-scale to fruition, lowering the price for everyone. And because autonomous vehicles can function at higher speeds than manually controlled ones, while still providing just as much (if not better) safety, these vehicles can decrease the time required to get from two points, while increasing the practical distance for most people.

 

Imagine being in a small van sized autonomous vehicle, that is traveling along something similar to today’s interstate roadway, but only filled with other autonomous vehicles. Your vehicle, along with others, can travel at speeds in excess of 120 mph. They could probably go faster even, it all really depends on how passengers feel given the various physical forces they will experience as they move faster and faster. But even at a conservatively low 120 mph, that essentially cuts every road trip you’ve done to half the time. Or, it could mean that you now have the patients to tolerate road trips that are twice as long! But you know what? If I didn’t have to drive (and thus lock my attention on a very monotonous task) because the car could do it autonomously, I’d be willing to go just about anywhere. The time it takes to get there is much less of a factor in general thanks to autonomous vehicles!

Conclusion

Our future includes autonomous cars, this is no doubt. It’s not a matter of if, but when. I’m excited for all the ways life will change once autonomous cars reach maturity and become wide spread. From the obvious benefits of general safety improvement and increased mobility, to the less obvious benefits, this will usher in a revolution for transportation.

About Me & This Topic

Alex has worked on human-machine interface and data management components related to autonomous cars, and has had a long interest in autonomy and vehicle/robot intelligence.

Why China and Russia have had no real effect on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies

Whether you follow Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies or not, you’ve likely seen the headlines report on China’s recent crack down on Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) and public cryptocurrencies markets.[1] Russia recently held a high profile conference with Ethereum creator Vitalik Bucherin, which was thought to be a huge boon.[2] But then Russia began to disavow cryptos, in  favor of their own national cryoto.[3] Many people reduced their holdings after this news broke and shouted dooms day epithets to anyone who will listen. This was followed by a handful of influential financial magnets (e.g. CEO Jamie Dimon, and others) publically denouncing bitcoin. The markets crashed by over 25% in a matter of days.

Now with the summary of recent events out of the way, I want to address at least part of the story: the part where China and Russia’s actions don’t really matter for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

Distributed means there is no central source of control

It is virtually impossible for any single authority (e.g. China or Russia) to exert full control over Bitcoin. Ignoring some theoretical problems which are technical in nature, as long as the Bitcoin network is secured by miner nodes all around the world, it remains distributed and highly resistant to singular attempts to control it. Even using access control techniques to restrict access to the Internet can be easily circumvented using VPNs, cellular networks, and internet protocols like Tor.

Ultimately, the real question in my mind is whether or not cryptocurrencies have become popular enough that people will continue to want them despite what their government does. If the demand remains strong, then cryptocurrencies will survive in these countries. And so far, it seems like that is the case. One key aspect of cryptos is that you can do peer-2-peer transactions, without any banks or central institutions involved. This is very similar to dealing in cash! Imagine if the government attempted to block you from trading $10 in cash with someone else? Basically impossible!

Loss of mineing farms is another’s gain

China made a big impact in the past several years by steadily increasing their mining share of the Bitcoin network, ranging from having 30% to as much as 70%[4] of the Bitcoin network hashing power. China has not cracked down on mining yet, but if they did, it would only open the doors for others to jump in. Russia, for example, has already begun courting miners who are seeking asylum from hostile governments.[5]

Mining would perhaps be less of a vacuum phenominon if Bitcoin was still a completely nascent technology. But now that the cryptocurrency is making headlines in newspapers and news shows around the world, people are paying attention. Stories of how lucrative mining can be are everywhere. The problem for individuals and small time mining operators is competition. But if that competition drops, say by 50% or more, it would most certainly create a vacuum effect, being filled quickly by opportunists.

Several countries have very favorable outlooks on cryptos

We see several examples of countries, with a money system in shambles, increasing Bitcoin and other cryptos at exponential rates. Venezula is a prime example. Basically, because their national currency has lost their people’s trust, people are turning to alternative means of value transfer. In these countries, a single Bitcoin can trade for 20-40% or more versus the more open global market. Before you get excited and think you see an arbitrage opportunity, just know that I’ve looked into it a couple of times, and unfortunately there are almost always barriers to entering these nascent markets.

Other countries like Japan, South Korea, and the United States appear to be open to having cryptos around, but they want to regulate it a bit more. Whether it’s for tax purposes, or money laundry prevention, the point is that several big player countries see a future with Bitcoin and other cryptos in it.

ICOs do need to be regulated

Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) have emerged as a new and novel way for startups to “crowdsource” their funding. In essence, they work by creating “smart contracts” along with “tokens” on cryptocurrency networks that support these features, such as Ethereum. A smart contract is basically just a small software application that runs in a secure and reliable manner on a blockchain. These “tokens” are simply arbitrary units of value. Tokens are typically sold by ICOs in exchange for a promise of service (e.g. the token can be used to pay for the new service once it launches) or for speculation that the startup will succeed, and others will want the token in the future, thus increasing the price.

The problem is that without any regulation, these startups can basically form at the drop of a hat, and ICOs can be about as valuable as dirt. Of course, this is true if you invest in any startup, be it on a publically traded exchange, Kickstarter, or another way. You run a very high risk of losing your investment. But in most of these cases, you have someone you can rely on (like the Securities and Exchange Commission) to weed out the frauds and scammers. ICOs often do not have this.

Summary

This post focused on the (lack of) effect countries have on the future of bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. While the markets might react sharply to negative news, these swings are emotional and temporary. If nothing else, I look at these dips as opportunities to buy into cryptos while they are lower. Year-over-year, month-over-month, cryptocurrencies have gained in value. This makes the long term prospects too good to pass up!